Comparing Biden's to Clinton's Lead

People continue to fret that Biden is ahead....but so was Clinton and she lost! But things really are quite different this time around.

1. Compare the last two weeks (9/23-10/6). According to 538, Clinton's lead in 2016 over this time period ranged from 2.6 to 4.6 points. This year Biden's lead over these two weeks has ranger from 7.3 to 9 points.

2. There is some nervousness about the potential for Biden to lose his relatively good performance among white noncollege voters since Clinton did better among this demographic at times before the voting, where she got really walloped.

A check of white noncollege crosstabs from this same period 4 years ago is difficult but I did ferret out a Quinnipiac poll from October 5-6 that had Clinton's deficit among white noncollege at -30. The Morning Consult data I referenced yesterday had Biden at just -15. While anything is possible I highly doubt that Biden's relatively good performance among white noncollege voters is just a chimera, especially when we take into account how Biden is doing in many of the state polls. But we shall see.