From the new NYT/Sienna poll of AZ:
Latinos: +38 Biden vs. +33 Clinton in 2016 (projected 19 percent of 2020 AZ voters)
White college: +1 Biden vs. -4 Clinton in 2016 (projected 30 percent of 2020 AZ voters)
White noncollege: -10 Biden vs. -25 Clinton in 2016 (projected 41 percent of 2020 AZ voters)
I will leave it as an exercise to the reader to evaluate the relative importance of the different components of Biden's winning formula.
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