We just might. Three political scientists have published an early forecast for the 2020 Presidential, Senate and House elections. Their forecast uses no trial heat data and just a small set of variables--Presidential approval, economic growth, type of election, seat exposure--to make their predictions. They see Democrats (probably) running the table. I advise you to remain nervous, but what this exercise does show is how the bad the basic fundamentals of this election are for Trump and the GOP.
The forecasts:
House: "The model predicts that the Republicans will lose 14 seats in the House, a number that would solidify the Democrats’ majority in the 117th Congress."
Senate: "For the Senate, the model predicts that the Republicans will lose seven seats."
President: "[I]f the economy continues its downward trajectory and the president’s approval rating remains static, our model predicts that Trump will receive only 24 percent of the electoral college vote."
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.